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Tour de France 2015 - WATTS - Pierre-Saint-Martin - Plateau de Beille

2015-07-21, 09:23 - Mathieu

Antoine Vayer's new article for Le Monde :
or a jpeg version of the article

NB : the article mentions only the thoughest part of La Pierre-Saint-Martin (29'05, 10.18km, 8.65%, 429W 78kg-std for Froome). Our website displays the whole climb, including Froome's slowing down in the last kilometer (40'57", 15.24km, 7.48%, 419W 78kg-std).

Here are some details given by Frédéric Portoleau, about his calculations for the climb in les Pyrénées :

Margin of error :
For these two climbs (La Pierre-Sant-Martin and Le Plateau de Beille) the margin of error is less than 3%. This mathematical incertitude has been calculated with the software Gum_MC (for more information, please read my article about incertitude).
NB : An incertitude of 3% means that there is 95% chance to be +/- 3%.

La Pierre-Sant-Martin :
I took account of the tailwind during the climb, that's why my estimation is lower than others (for instance here).
The main event is of course the superiority of Chris Froome, but also the unexpected failure of Contador, Nibali and Pinot. These three riders were far from their best level during this climb.
Because of the heat ? Or maybe the surprise of the first tough climb after the rest day ?

Le Plateau de Beille :
Even if his time is the same as the others cyclists, Geraint Thomas pushed more watts than them, because he rode in front of the group during a long part of the climb, with head wind.
The measures at the upper part of Le Plateau de Beille (4 last kilometers) confirmed a head wind, number 2 on the Beaufort scale.

Next :
The average power of Chris Froome will now depend on his opponents, especially Quintana. The Colombian likes the long climbs, I think the only stage where he could outdistance Froome is at L'Alpe d'Huez, and potentially at La Toussuire but there are some berms. The slope is not stiff enough at Pra-Loup, so Quintana may lose some time there.